Recently shipping data analysis company Sea-Intelligence assessed the potential number of containers that would be backlogged and the possible delays if a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) occurs.
The International Longshoremen’s Association has clearly stated that if a new agreement is not reached, the strike will begin on October 1, 2024.
Based on historical data, Sea-Intelligence estimates that in October, the U.S. East Coast will handle 2.3 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), which is equivalent to 74,000 TEU per day, including 36,000 TEU of imports and 38,000 TEU of exports.
20,000 TEU of loading capacity would be blocked each day if a strike occurs.
In addition to normal operations the backlog of containers will also need to be processed once the potential strike is over. Clearing these backlogs will require additional capacity equivalent to the available extra capacity of the East Coast port system.
One way to estimate the remaining capacity is to compare the highest number of containers ever handled on the East Coast with the projected handling for October 2024.
Sea-Intelligence predicts that by October, the port system will be able to increase its throughput by 13% above the planned 2.3 million TEU.
Sea-Intelligence predicts that with an additional 13% throughput capacity in East Coast ports, it will take 6 days to clear the backlog caused by a one-day strike in October.
It could be reduced to 4-5 days if the ports have additional surplus capacity. However, this means that a one-week strike in early October may not be resolved until mid-November. If a two-week strike occurs, the ports may not return to normal operations until 2025.
In July, ILA President Harold Daggett announced that the likelihood of a strike at ports along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts on October 1 was increasing, as there are currently 80 days left before the contract with USMX expires.
Disclaimer: This article is compiled from information available on the internet and is for reference only. The facts are subject to official announcements or actual circumstances.